Oddly enough I was thinking about this the other day as I was struggling to get home through heavy traffic. I read an article a few years ago that claimed the cause of traffic congestion is not "too much" traffic - the theoretical maximum traffic capacity of our freeways is much higher than we see in practice - but instead "overbraking". This explains how traffic grinds to a halt without any apparent cause (e.g. an accident). How it works is that someone changes lane to merge or get a better position, and the car behind them brakes slightly to accommodate. The car behind them brakes a little bit more, since drivers always overcompensate, then the next car and so on until eventually so much speed is lost that traffic starts to crawl. The solution, as you say, is computer control. Computers will not overcompensate, and through communication with other vehicles and better reaction times can travel a lot faster and closer to other vehicles. It's claimed that computer control could at least triple the capacity of our roads ... the question is how do we get there? Until most cars are computer controlled we will see little benefit from the technology, so it's a tricky economic proposition that will probably need government subsidy.
Keith
Chris Sivori
· 1 year ago
I think we'll see this in another 20 years. First the cars will "assist" drivers, alerting them to potential collisions or road hazards and braking if they get too close to a stationary object, etc. Then we will gradually cede more authority to our guidance systems until we're just passively riding around. I think the role for government is in encouraging this technology (a la the DARPA challenges) and helping to build the infrastructure to allow this technology.
BrianR
· 1 year ago
The problem, as always, is transitioning ... how does a roadway work when you have a combination of the "new" automated cars and "old school" human-driven cars ... this mix will have to be addressed. We can't simply switch over all of the sudden.
Perhaps, it'll start with special lanes (like HOV lanes) that are only for these new auto-automobiles? Or, maybe it'll start with cabs, buses, or other non-personal vehicles.
BrianR
· 1 year ago
Regarding what Keith was talking about ... if you watch time-lapse footage of heavy traffic, those transient moments of stoppage or near-stoppage migrate "upstream" even while all the traffic is moving "downstream". This produces an accordion effect or a "wave". Definitely not efficient...but this type of pattern is seen in nature, so there's something fundamental about it.
You can see this phenomenon well in some of the footage in the film Koyaanisqatsi.
Chris Sivori
· 1 year ago
Brian: I think AI will have to take into account destructive or unexpected behavior like vehicle failure, etc., so it will need to be robust enough to work around crazy human drivers. We would definitely see mixed systems. In one sci-fi book I read recently, all the taxis were driven remotely from call centers. Something like that could be an alternative to AI.
All Comments
Keith
Perhaps, it'll start with special lanes (like HOV lanes) that are only for these new auto-automobiles? Or, maybe it'll start with cabs, buses, or other non-personal vehicles.
You can see this phenomenon well in some of the footage in the film Koyaanisqatsi.